Poker Outs Explained

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How Knockout Poker works. Knockout Poker tournaments are special MTT and Sit & Go tournaments where the prize money is split, with a part going to the overall prize pool, and the other part distributed among players for each opponent they knock out. An “out” is any card that can come which will give you the best hand. Obviously, before you can begin to count outs, you have to know the poker hand rankings forward and backwards. So start there if you don't know them. After you know the poker hand rankings you need to be able to read the board. A Guide to Texas Hold'em Poker Please note that this is not a full guide to playing Texas Hold’em but covers just enough that you won’t be baffled. Here's how it’s played: 1. The two players to the left of the dealer put out blind bets (see below).

Did you ever wonder what is all the maths that professional poker players seem to be doing in their head? Well a lot of the time they will be counting outs to see what chance they have of winning.

Learning the basics of counting outs is another step on your journey to becoming a proficient poker player. But first what exactly are poker outs?

Poker Outs Explained

An out is any card that will improve your hand to better than that of your opponent. A common example is when you have four hearts in your hand and need the fifth heart to complete the flush (i.e. a flush draw) . If you count the number of hearts left in the deck (13 total minus the 4 in your hand = 9), you know how many outs you have and can work out the probabaility of winning the hand.

So counting outs is just very basic addition and multiplication.

Another simple example is when you have a flush draw such as A K of hearts on T72♠ – you currently only have Ace high but any heart will give you a flush.

There are 9 hearts in total which will complete your draw however one of those hearts (2) may give your opponent a full house.

You can also hit an ace (A♠, A♣, A) or king (K♠, K♣, K) but these cards aren’t always guaranteed to give you the best hand. Generally speaking, you only count the outs which are sure to give you the best hand.

Table Of Contents

Poker Outs Explained
  • Considerations and additional points when counting outs

Counting Outs: The Process

The first question you need to ask yourself when counting outs is ’How many cards in the deck will give me the hand I want? ‘

For example if you have a flush draw you will have 9 outs, if you have a gut shot you will have 4 outs, and with an opened ended straight draw you have 8 outs. A table below summarizes each draw with number of outs.

Draw typeExample handExample BoardNo. of outs
Three of a kind draw55 A722
Gutshot straight draw76A534
Open ended straight drawKQ onJT28
Flush draw A2 T739
Open ended & flush drawJT98315

Now that you know how many outs you have you need to actually use that number There is no point in calculating your outs if we aren’t going to use it in our decision making process.

The easiest way to do this is using the rule of 2 and 4…

The rule of 2 and 4

This rule is pretty simple.

To work out your equity or chance of winning when seeing the turn you multiply the number of outs by 2. Thus if we have 9 outs we will multiply that by 2 to get 18% equity.

For example if we are on the turn and want to know our chance of hitting by the river this is the method we would use.

To estimate your equity or chance of winning when on the flop you multiply the number of outs by 4. Again, if we have 9 outs we will multiply that by 4 to get 36% equity. For example if we are on the flop and want to know our chance of hitting by the river.

The rule of 2 and 4 is only an estimation for our equity but it is usually accurate giving our equity to within a percentage point or two.

Part of counting your outs is understanding if you are ahead or behind (and by how much) so it is important to understand your opponent's range. For more information on ranges see thefollowing link.

When we know our equity we can make a decision whether our hand is worth continuing with.

This method is actually pretty accurate, particularly for low numbers of outs. See the table below where I compared equity for each situation using the 2 and 4 method and equilab.

Poker outs explained poker
Draw typeEquity on the flop Equity on the turn
Rule of 2&4EquilabRule of 2&4Equilab
Three of a kind draw8%9%4%5%
Gutshot straight draw16%18%8%10%
Open ended straight draw32%30%16%19%
Flush draw 36%33%18%18%
Open ended & flush draw60%60%30%39%

The above table assumes that only the the primary draw goes towards our chances of winning. In reality, you will have slightly more equity than the rule of 2 and 4 suggests as you will often have equity from backdoor draws and overcards.

The overall process for counting outs and calculating equity

  1. Determine what hand you have or could potentially have. If you are not sure of the hand rankings make sure you check them out
  2. Count how many cards will give you that hand
  3. Calculate your equity using the rule of 2 and 4
  4. Determine if your hand is worth continuing vs a bet by weighting your equity vs pot odds.

Considerations and additional points when counting outs

Double Counting

One must always be careful not to double count outs. With a big draw such as a straight and flush draw we will have 9 outs to the flush and 8 outs to the straight. However, of the straight draw outs there will be two which also complete the flush; thus we must remove these double counted outs.

As a result we no longer have 17 outs (9 flush + 8 straight), we now have 15 outs (9 flush + 6 straight or 7 flush + 8 straight)

The Double gutter

One interesting hand type is the double gutter. A double gutter is as the name suggests a double gut shot.

An example is when you have JT on AQ8 board. Any 9 or K will make you a straight. A double gutter can sometimes be difficult to spot, even for experienced players.

However, that makes them more powerful than other draws, as when you hit your hand it is more disguised. A more disguised hand is more likely to get paid off when you hit.

The Monster Draw

Another interesting hand type is the ‘monster’ draw. These are draws with typically 12 or more outs such as a flush draw + straight draw, or a flush draw plus pair type hand.

These hands have so many outs that it almost never wrong to commit all your chips (given you have a reasonable stack size).

The most powerful of all these hand types is the open ended straight flush draw- JT on Q95♣.

With this hand, not only do you have a flush and a straight draw but you have two cards which are the absolute nuts – you cannot ever be beaten if you hit the K or the 8. The importance of these 2 outs cannot be underestimated.

One issue with monster draws is that the rule and two and four begins to break down- the rule overestimates the equity. Although there will be very few situations where you will be folding a big draw.

All Outs Are Not Equal – Anti-outs

Another aspect we need to take into account is that not all outs are created equal. Outs to the nuts (the strongest hand possible) are always the most sought after type of outs; unfortunately we won’t always have outs to the nuts.

In most cases we will count our flush draw out as a normal out but it can complete a full house for our opponent.

Take for example our opponent has 77 on T72♠: we will count the 2 as an out when we have a heart flush draw.

Poker Outs Explained Poker

However, it will improve our opponent's hand at the same time as ours; unfortunately for us that will be to a full house which beats a flush.

We will lose a lot of money in this example.

A further example of drawing to not nutted outs is the ‘dummy’ or bottom end of the straight. When we have the bottom two cards of a four to a straight, for example 87 on T95 flop, we will be dominated by a hand such as KQ; if a jack hits we will both complete a straight but KQ will have the nut straight, beating our lower straight.

As such, drawing to the upper end of the straight is much more powerful. Although, it is not always possible to avoid drawing to the dummy end of the straight. However, take into account they are less powerful than other straight draws and hence you should be less likely to proceed with them vs betting action.

We can apply a similar thought process to overcard outs: AK on T52 board. If we hit our Ace or King on the turn we may not still have the best hand. Someone may have a set or two pair already or they might make two pair with the card which helps us.

Counting Outs Real Life Example:

How many outs do we have here?

Poker Outs Explained Game

Our opponent has 44 and we have 98 on T5♣37♠ board.

  • We have two overcards to our opponent so that is 3 outs for the 9 and 3 outs for the 8 for a total of 6.
  • We have a J and a 6 to complete our straight which is 4 each for a total of 8.
  • We also have a flush draw of which there is 13 hearts in total. We have 2 of them hearts, our opponent has one and there are two on the board. That leaves 8 hearts.

That gives a total of 22 outs..

However we have double counted some of the outs. The 6 and the J are counted in the flush and the straight counts we made.

We should only count them once meaning that we now have a total of 20 outs. Using the rule of 2 and 4, we know that we have approximately 40% equity since we are on the turn.

That means we should be calling almost any sized bet on this turn if we knew our opponent had a pair of 4's on the board.

Conclusion

Poker outs explained game

Counting outs is not the most difficult of tasks a poker player must perform; however but it is one of the most useful. If you know how to count and think about your outs you are well of some of the poker population.

Counting outs allows you to understand how likely you are to win the hand. This allow you to decide whether you want to continue versus a bet or raise and hence make more informed decisions at the poker table.

The more likely to win the hand, the less likely you should be to fold.

Follow up this lesson with another on Pot Equity.

In Omaha Poker not all ‘outs’ (card which can improve your hand) are equal – that is to say that the combinations of hands your opponents may hold can easily mean that a card which makes your hand could make an opponent an even better one.

The key factor in Omaha is to quickly assess whether an out will give you the best hand, a card which does this is known as a ‘nut out’. If this card comes on the turn you may not be in the clear just yet! If it is possible that a river card could allow an opponent to made an even better hand then you could still lose (the most common example is when the river pairs the board – giving an opponent a full house against your nut flush).

An out which makes you the best hand on the turn regardless of what comes on the river is known as a ‘killer out’. The most common examples would be cards that make you a straight flush or quads.
Here we will look at some examples of Omaha Poker hands on the flop and discuss the type of outs which each hand has. We will include the number of cards which might come on the river to counterfeit your hand in each example.

Your Hand: 4-5-6-8 (4 suits)
The Flop: 2-3-K (unsuited)

Here you have a monster draw – any ace, 4, 5, 6 on the turn will give you the nut straight, giving you a total of ‘nut’ 13 outs on the turn. Since the board is unsuited you do not need to worry about flushes, the only cards here that could ruin your hand are those which pair the board – potentially giving an opponent a full house. A 6 or 7 may not be as good a card as this seems on the turn here – now an opponent holding 4-5-7-9 or 4-5-6-9 will have a free chance to our draw you on the river.

Your Hand: A-A-K-J (double suited)
The Flop: A-4-9 (2 of your suit)

This is the best possible scenario in Omaha – you have flopped the monster holding of top set + the nut flush draw. Here you have 6 outs for a full house on the turn in addition to 1 ‘killer out’ of the remaining ace). In addition any of the remaining cards of your suit will give you the nut flush, since 2 cards are already suited to your hand we need to remove the remaining suited card to avoid double counting. This leaves you 8 more nut outs for a total of 15 – not bad in the situation where you have the current nut hand. The danger on this board is that you are facing an opponent with a low straight draw such as 2-3-5-6, in the event that this opponent hits a 5, 3 or 2 on the turn you would have an additional 3 full house outs on the river, and this is assuming that you did not make your flush at the same time your opponent hit their low straight!

The only (unlikely) scenario in which you may loose your hand is where an opponent holds trip 4’s or 9’s and makes quads on the turn or river. It is also feasible that unsuited cards

Your Hand: K-K-6-7 (unsuited with 6 of hearts)
The Flop: Q-J-9 (2 hearts)

Here you flopped an over pair to the board, however your hand is extremely vulnerable and will usually need to be mucked to serious action. The problem here is that there are either made hands containing 8-10 or 10-K already against you – or your opponents have such a large number of potential draws as to make them favorite in the hand. We should also note that you outs are not to the nuts. If you hit one of the remaining Kings on the turn you are in even more danger… one of them is a heart completing likely flushes and this card also allows any A-10 hands to make the nut straight. Hitting the king on the turn gives you a 10 out redraw to a full house or quads – however we strongly advise you to avoid getting into this situation by folding to any action on the flop!

Of course, holding kings here makes it more difficult to opponents to draw to straights – the cards you hold are ‘blocking’ your opponent’s outs to some extent. Check out our article on Blockers In Omaha Poker for more information how to play these type of situations.

Poker Outs Explained Rules

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